Germany: Poll by INSA from 15.07.2024

Germany: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
Union
31.0
+1.0
AfD
18.0
±0.0
SPD
15.0
±0.0
Grüne
11.5
-0.5
BSW
8.5
-0.5
FDP
5.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
+1.0
Others
8.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Union
+2.5
AfD
-2.8
SPD
-1.4
Grüne
-0.1
BSW
+3.6
FDP
+0.7
Linke
-5.8
INSA – 2500 respondents – 12.07.2024-15.07.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 36% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 34% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from INSA shows the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 18%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11.5%, BSW 8.5%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, BSW might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.6 growth since the last election. Die Linke, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Friedrich Merz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CDU/CSU and SPD. With 51.9% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 2500 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (12.07.2024 - 15.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
107
17%
Grüne
81
12.9%
BSW
60
9.5%
FDP
35
5.6%
Union
220
34.9%
AfD
127
20.2%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
57.3%
CDU/CSU + AfD
55.1%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
53.3%
CDU/CSU + SPD
51.9%
CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP
50.0%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
47.8%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 12.07.2024 and 15.07.2024 among 2500 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 18%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11.5%, BSW 8.5%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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