Germany: Poll by INSA from 19.07.2024

Polling data

Union
30.0
-1.0
AfD
17.0
-1.0
SPD
15.0
±0.0
Grüne
11.0
-0.5
BSW
9.0
+0.5
FDP
5.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
Others
10.0
+2.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Union
+5.9
AfD
+6.7
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-3.8
BSW
New
FDP
-6.5
Linke
-1.9
INSA – 1207 respondents – 15.07.2024-19.07.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 29.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from INSA shows the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 17%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11%, BSW 9%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 29.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 1207 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (15.07.2024 - 19.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
109
17.3%
Grüne
79
12.5%
BSW
65
10.3%
FDP
36
5.7%
Union
218
34.6%
AfD
123
19.5%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
57.5%
CDU/CSU + AfD
54.1%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
52.9%
CDU/CSU + SPD
51.9%
CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP
50.6%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
47.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 15.07.2024 and 19.07.2024 among 1207 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 17%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11%, BSW 9%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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