Germany
Election trend
Parties
Upcoming elections:
Brandenburg
Germany

Germany: Poll by Ipsos from 04.08.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
30.0
±0.0
AfD
16.0
±0.0
SPD
14.0
±0.0
Grüne
13.0
+1.0
BSW
8.0
±0.0
FDP
5.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
FW
2.0
±0.0
Sonst.
9.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+5.9
AfD
+5.7
SPD
-11.7
Grüne
-1.8
BSW
New
FDP
-6.5
Linke
-1.9
FW
-0.4
Ipsos – 1000 respondents – 02.08.2024-04.08.2024

Next election: 28.09.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 386.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 38% of election polls, Ipsos rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from Ipsos shows the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 16%, SPD 14%, Grüne 13%, BSW 8%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 2%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.9 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-11.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne, FDP and SPD. With 37.2% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (02.08.2024 - 04.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
103
Grüne
95
BSW
58
FDP
36
CDU/CSU
221
AfD
117
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + AfD
338
CDU/CSU + SPD
324
CDU/CSU + Grüne
316
CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP
315

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 02.08.2024 and 04.08.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 16%, SPD 14%, Grüne 13%, BSW 8%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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