Germany
Election trend
Parties
Upcoming elections:
Brandenburg
Germany

Germany: Poll by INSA from 12.08.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
30.5
-0.5
AfD
18.0
±0.0
SPD
15.0
-1.0
Grüne
10.5
+0.5
BSW
9.5
+0.5
FDP
5.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
Sonst.
8.5
+0.5
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+6.4
AfD
+7.7
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-4.3
BSW
New
FDP
-6.5
Linke
-1.9
INSA – 2008 respondents – 09.08.2024-12.08.2024

Next election: 28.09.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 385.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 38% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 36% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from INSA shows the following results: CDU/CSU 30.5%, AfD 18%, SPD 15%, Grüne 10.5%, BSW 9.5%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne, FDP and SPD. With 34.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 2008 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (09.08.2024 - 12.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
107
Grüne
75
BSW
67
FDP
35
CDU/CSU
218
AfD
128
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
360
CDU/CSU + AfD
346
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
328
CDU/CSU + SPD
325
CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP
320
CDU/CSU + Grüne
293

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 09.08.2024 and 12.08.2024 among 2008 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 30.5%, AfD 18%, SPD 15%, Grüne 10.5%, BSW 9.5%, FDP 5% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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