Germany
Election trend
Parties
Upcoming elections:
Brandenburg
Germany

Germany: Poll by YouGov from 13.08.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
31.0
+1.0
AfD
19.0
±0.0
SPD
15.0
+1.0
Grüne
12.0
±0.0
BSW
8.0
-1.0
FDP
5.0
-1.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
FW
1.0
-1.0
Sonst.
6.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+6.9
AfD
+8.7
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-2.8
BSW
New
FDP
-6.5
Linke
-1.9
FW
-1.4
YouGov – 1354 respondents – 09.08.2024-13.08.2024

Next election: 28.09.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 386.

Institute often rates AfD higher

In 41% of election polls, YouGov rates AfD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Die Linke higher

In 35% of election polls, YouGov rates Die Linke higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Freie Wähler lower

In 60% of election polls YouGov rates Freie Wähler lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from YouGov shows the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Grüne 12%, BSW 8%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 1%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne, FDP and SPD. With 35.6% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by YouGov. For this purpose, 1354 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (09.08.2024 - 13.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
105
Grüne
84
BSW
56
FDP
35
CDU/CSU
217
AfD
133
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
357
CDU/CSU + AfD
350
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
336
CDU/CSU + SPD
322
CDU/CSU + Grüne
301

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by YouGov. The survey took place between 09.08.2024 and 13.08.2024 among 1354 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Grüne 12%, BSW 8%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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