Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 18.08.2024

Polling data

CDU
34.5
+3.0
AfD
30.0
-1.0
BSW
14.0
+0.5
SPD
5.0
-1.0
Linke
4.5
+1.5
Grüne
4.5
-2.0
FDP
1.0
-0.5
Others
6.5
-0.5
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU
New
AfD
+19.7
BSW
New
SPD
-20.7
Linke
-0.4
Grüne
-10.3
FDP
-10.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 1000 respondents – 10.08.2024-18.08.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 29.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: CDU 34.5%, AfD 30%, BSW 14%, SPD 5%, Die Linke 4.5%, Grüne 4.5% and FDP 1%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +19.7 growth since the last election. CDU, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 5.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 8 days (10.08.2024 - 18.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

120
Majority requires 61 seats
SPD
7
5.8%
BSW
20
16.7%
CDU
50
41.7%
AfD
43
35.8%
CDU + AfD
77.5%
CDU + BSW
58.3%
AfD + BSW
52.5%
CDU + SPD
47.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Saxony was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 10.08.2024 and 18.08.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 34.5%, AfD 30%, BSW 14%, SPD 5%, Die Linke 4.5%, Grüne 4.5% and FDP 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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