Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 31.08.2024

Polling data

AfD
31.0
+3.5
CDU
22.5
-0.5
BSW
17.5
-1.5
Linke
14.0
-1.5
SPD
5.0
+0.5
Grüne
2.5
±0.0
Others
7.5
-0.5
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
AfD
+20.7
CDU
New
BSW
New
Linke
+9.1
SPD
-20.7
Grüne
-12.3
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 900 respondents – 26.08.2024-31.08.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 29.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: AfD 31%, CDU 22.5%, BSW 17.5%, Die Linke 14%, SPD 5% and Grüne 2.5%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +20.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-20.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 5.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 900 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (26.08.2024 - 31.08.2024).

Coalition possibilities

88
Majority requires 45 seats
Linke
14
15.9%
SPD
5
5.7%
BSW
17
19.3%
CDU
22
25%
AfD
30
34.1%
CDU + BSW + Die Linke
60.2%
AfD + CDU
59.1%
AfD + BSW
53.4%
AfD + Die Linke
50.0%
CDU + BSW + SPD
50.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Thuringia was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 26.08.2024 and 31.08.2024 among 900 eligible voters. After this election poll would get AfD 31%, CDU 22.5%, BSW 17.5%, Die Linke 14%, SPD 5% and Grüne 2.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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