Germany
Election trend
Parties
Upcoming elections:
Hamburg
Germany

Germany: Poll by Allensbach from 11.09.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
35.5
+1.5
AfD
17.0
+1.0
SPD
16.0
±0.0
Grüne
10.0
-1.5
BSW
9.0
+2.0
FDP
4.0
-1.0
Sonst.
8.5
-2.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+11.4
AfD
+6.7
SPD
-9.7
Grüne
-4.8
BSW
New
FDP
-7.5
Allensbach – 1017 respondents – 29.08.2024-11.09.2024

Next election: 28.09.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 355.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 32% of election polls Allensbach rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CDU/CSU higher

In 64% of election polls, Allensbach rates CDU/CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 45% of election polls, Allensbach rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from Allensbach shows the following results: CDU/CSU 35.5%, AfD 17%, SPD 16%, Grüne 10%, BSW 9% and FDP 4%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +11.4 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne, FDP and SPD. With 29.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Allensbach. For this purpose, 1017 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 13 days (29.08.2024 - 11.09.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
115
Grüne
72
BSW
65
CDU/CSU
256
AfD
122
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + AfD
378
CDU/CSU + SPD
371
CDU/CSU + Grüne
328
CDU/CSU + BSW
321

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Allensbach. The survey took place between 29.08.2024 and 11.09.2024 among 1017 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 35.5%, AfD 17%, SPD 16%, Grüne 10%, BSW 9% and FDP 4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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