Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 21.09.2024

Polling data

SPD
28.0
+7.5
AfD
27.0
-3.0
CDU
13.5
-1.5
BSW
12.5
-2.0
BVB/FW
4.5
±0.0
Grüne
4.0
-1.5
Linke
3.5
±0.0
FDP
0.5
-0.5
Others
6.5
+1.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
SPD
+2.3
AfD
+16.7
CDU
New
BSW
New
BVB/FW
New
Grüne
-10.8
Linke
-1.4
FDP
-11.0
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 982 respondents – 17.09.2024-21.09.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 29.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: SPD 28%, AfD 27%, CDU 13.5%, BSW 12.5%, BVB/FW 4.5%, Grüne 4%, Die Linke 3.5% and FDP 0.5%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +16.7 growth since the last election. FDP, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-11.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 34.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 982 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (17.09.2024 - 21.09.2024).

Coalition possibilities

88
Majority requires 45 seats
SPD
30
34.1%
BSW
14
15.9%
CDU
15
17%
AfD
29
33%
AfD + CDU + BSW
65.9%
SPD + CDU
51.1%
AfD + CDU
50.0%
SPD + BSW
50.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Brandenburg was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 17.09.2024 and 21.09.2024 among 982 eligible voters. After this election poll would get SPD 28%, AfD 27%, CDU 13.5%, BSW 12.5%, BVB/FW 4.5%, Grüne 4%, Die Linke 3.5% and FDP 0.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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