Germany
Election trend
Parties
Upcoming elections:
Hamburg
Germany

Germany: Poll by INSA from 30.09.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
31.5
-0.5
AfD
19.0
±0.0
SPD
15.0
±0.0
Grüne
11.0
±0.0
BSW
9.5
-0.5
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
2.5
-0.5
Sonst.
7.5
+1.5
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+7.4
AfD
+8.7
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-3.8
BSW
New
FDP
-7.5
Linke
-2.4
INSA – 2002 respondents – 27.09.2024-30.09.2024

Next election: 28.09.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 355.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 41% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 36% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from INSA shows the following results: CDU/CSU 31.5%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11%, BSW 9.5%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2.5%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne, FDP and SPD. With 30.2% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 2002 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (27.09.2024 - 30.09.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
110
Grüne
81
BSW
69
CDU/CSU
231
AfD
139
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
381
CDU/CSU + AfD
370
CDU/CSU + SPD
341
CDU/CSU + Grüne
312

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 27.09.2024 and 30.09.2024 among 2002 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 31.5%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11%, BSW 9.5%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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