Germany: Poll by INSA from 04.10.2024

Germany: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
Union
31.0
-0.5
AfD
20.0
+1.0
SPD
16.0
+1.0
Grüne
11.0
±0.0
BSW
8.0
-1.5
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
+0.5
Others
7.0
-0.5
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Union
+2.5
AfD
-0.8
SPD
-0.4
Grüne
-0.6
BSW
+3.1
FDP
-0.3
Linke
-5.8
INSA – 1237 respondents – 30.09.2024-04.10.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 38% of election polls, INSA rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 34% of election polls INSA rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from INSA shows the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 20%, SPD 16%, Grüne 11%, BSW 8%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, BSW might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.1 growth since the last election. Die Linke, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Friedrich Merz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CDU/CSU and SPD. With 54.6% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by INSA. For this purpose, 1237 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (30.09.2024 - 04.10.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
117
18.6%
Grüne
81
12.9%
BSW
58
9.2%
Union
227
36%
AfD
147
23.3%
CDU/CSU + AfD
59.4%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
58.1%
CDU/CSU + SPD
54.6%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
48.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by INSA. The survey took place between 30.09.2024 and 04.10.2024 among 1237 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 20%, SPD 16%, Grüne 11%, BSW 8%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
How to embed the election trend on your website:
  1. Copy code below
  2. Paste code on your website
  3. Done!
Copy code
Copied!