Germany: Poll by Verian from 29.10.2024

Polling data

Union
32.0
+1.0
AfD
17.0
±0.0
SPD
16.0
±0.0
Grüne
11.0
±0.0
BSW
8.0
+1.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
FDP
3.0
-1.0
Others
10.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Union
+7.9
AfD
+6.7
SPD
-9.7
Grüne
-3.8
BSW
New
Linke
-1.9
FDP
-8.5
Verian – 1443 respondents – 23.10.2024-29.10.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 71.

Institute often rates BSW lower

In 38% of election polls Verian rates BSW lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Grüne higher

In 41% of election polls, Verian rates Grüne higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Verian shows the following results: CDU/CSU 32%, AfD 17%, SPD 16%, Grüne 11%, BSW 8%, Die Linke 3% and FDP 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +7.9 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 32.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Verian. For this purpose, 1443 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (23.10.2024 - 29.10.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
120
19%
Grüne
82
13%
BSW
60
9.5%
Union
241
38.3%
AfD
127
20.2%
CDU/CSU + AfD
58.4%
CDU/CSU + SPD
57.3%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
51.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Verian. The survey took place between 23.10.2024 and 29.10.2024 among 1443 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 32%, AfD 17%, SPD 16%, Grüne 11%, BSW 8%, Die Linke 3% and FDP 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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