Germany: Poll by YouGov from 12.11.2024

Polling data

Union
33.0
+1.0
AfD
19.0
+1.0
SPD
15.0
-1.0
Grüne
12.0
+1.0
BSW
7.0
-1.0
FDP
5.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
FW
1.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Union
+8.9
AfD
+8.7
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-2.8
BSW
New
FDP
-6.5
Linke
-1.9
FW
-1.4
YouGov – 2193 respondents – 08.11.2024-12.11.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 71.

Institute often rates AfD higher

In 40% of election polls, YouGov rates AfD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 36% of election polls, YouGov rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Die Linke higher

In 33% of election polls, YouGov rates Die Linke higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Freie Wähler lower

In 64% of election polls YouGov rates Freie Wähler lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from YouGov shows the following results: CDU/CSU 33%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Grüne 12%, BSW 7%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 1%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.9 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 29.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by YouGov. For this purpose, 2193 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (08.11.2024 - 12.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
104
16.5%
Grüne
83
13.2%
BSW
48
7.6%
FDP
34
5.4%
Union
229
36.3%
AfD
132
21%
CDU/CSU + AfD
57.3%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW
57.1%
CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP
54.9%
CDU/CSU + SPD
52.9%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
49.5%
CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP
49.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by YouGov. The survey took place between 08.11.2024 and 12.11.2024 among 2193 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 33%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Grüne 12%, BSW 7%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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