Germany: Poll by Allensbach from 14.11.2024

Polling data

Union
37.0
+1.0
AfD
17.0
+1.0
SPD
15.0
±0.0
Grüne
10.0
-0.5
BSW
7.5
-1.5
FDP
4.0
-0.5
Others
9.5
+0.5
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Union
+12.9
AfD
+6.7
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-4.8
BSW
New
FDP
-7.5
Allensbach – 1049 respondents – 02.11.2024-14.11.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 71.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 33% of election polls Allensbach rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CDU/CSU higher

In 64% of election polls, Allensbach rates CDU/CSU higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 44% of election polls, Allensbach rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Allensbach shows the following results: CDU/CSU 37%, AfD 17%, SPD 15%, Grüne 10%, BSW 7.5% and FDP 4%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +12.9 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 28.9% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Allensbach. For this purpose, 1049 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 12 days (02.11.2024 - 14.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
109
17.3%
Grüne
73
11.6%
BSW
54
8.6%
Union
270
42.9%
AfD
124
19.7%
CDU/CSU + AfD
62.5%
CDU/CSU + SPD
60.2%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
54.4%
CDU/CSU + BSW
51.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Allensbach. The survey took place between 02.11.2024 and 14.11.2024 among 1049 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 37%, AfD 17%, SPD 15%, Grüne 10%, BSW 7.5% and FDP 4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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