Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 20.11.2024

Polling data

Union
34.0
+3.0
AfD
18.5
+3.5
SPD
15.0
-1.5
Grüne
11.0
-2.5
BSW
5.0
-1.0
FDP
4.0
-2.0
Linke
2.5
-0.5
FW
2.5
+2.5
Others
7.5
-1.5
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Union
+9.9
AfD
+8.2
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-3.8
BSW
New
FDP
-7.5
Linke
-2.4
FW
+0.1
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 2000 respondents – 14.11.2024-20.11.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 75.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 32% of election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates CDU/CSU lower

In 77% of election polls Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates CDU/CSU lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: CDU/CSU 34%, AfD 18.5%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11%, BSW 5%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 2.5% and Freie Wähler 2.5%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, CDU/CSU might gain the most in voter favorability with +9.9 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 31.2% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (14.11.2024 - 20.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
113
18%
Grüne
83
13.2%
BSW
37
6%
Union
257
40.7%
AfD
140
22.2%
CDU/CSU + AfD
63.0%
CDU/CSU + SPD
58.7%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
54.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 14.11.2024 and 20.11.2024 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 34%, AfD 18.5%, SPD 15%, Grüne 11%, BSW 5%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 2.5% and Freie Wähler 2.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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