Germany: Poll by Allensbach from 29.11.2024

Polling data

CDU
33.0
+3.0
SPD
27.0
-2.0
AfD
16.0
-5.0
Grüne
10.0
-1.0
BSW
4.0
+4.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
FW
4.0
+4.0
Others
2.0
-3.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU
New
SPD
+1.3
AfD
+5.7
Grüne
-4.8
BSW
New
FDP
-7.5
FW
+1.6
Allensbach – 1007 respondents – 11.11.2024-29.11.2024

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 29.

Institute often rates AfD lower

In 32% of election polls Allensbach rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 43% of election polls, Allensbach rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Allensbach shows the following results: CDU 33%, SPD 27%, AfD 16%, Grüne 10%, BSW 4%, FDP 4% and Freie Wähler 4%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.7 growth since the last election. CDU, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (New) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 43.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Allensbach. For this purpose, 1007 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 18 days (11.11.2024 - 29.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

135
Majority requires 68 seats
SPD
42
31.1%
Grüne
16
11.9%
CDU
52
38.5%
AfD
25
18.5%
CDU + SPD
69.6%
CDU + AfD
57.0%
CDU + Grüne
50.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Lower Saxony was conducted by Allensbach. The survey took place between 11.11.2024 and 29.11.2024 among 1007 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 33%, SPD 27%, AfD 16%, Grüne 10%, BSW 4%, FDP 4% and Freie Wähler 4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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