Germany: Poll by Ipsos from 04.01.2025

Polling data

Union
30.0
-2.0
AfD
19.0
+1.0
SPD
16.0
±0.0
Grüne
13.0
±0.0
BSW
7.0
±0.0
FDP
4.0
+1.0
Linke
3.0
±0.0
FW
2.0
-1.0
Others
6.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Union
+5.9
AfD
+8.7
SPD
-9.7
Grüne
-1.8
BSW
New
FDP
-7.5
Linke
-1.9
FW
-0.4
Ipsos – 1000 respondents – 02.01.2025-04.01.2025

Next election: 23.02.2025

The next general election in Germany will be held in 30.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 31% of election polls, Ipsos rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 35% of election polls, Ipsos rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Ipsos shows the following results: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 19%, SPD 16%, Grüne 13%, BSW 7%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 2%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-9.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 34.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (02.01.2025 - 04.01.2025).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
119
18.9%
Grüne
96
15.2%
BSW
51
8.1%
Union
223
35.4%
AfD
141
22.4%
CDU/CSU + AfD
57.8%
CDU/CSU + SPD
54.3%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
50.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 02.01.2025 and 04.01.2025 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 19%, SPD 16%, Grüne 13%, BSW 7%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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