Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 16.01.2025

Germany: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
Union
29.0
+1.0
AfD
21.0
+3.0
SPD
16.5
-1.5
Grüne
15.0
-0.5
BSW
4.0
-2.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
2.5
±0.0
FW
2.0
±0.0
Others
6.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
Union
+0.5
AfD
+0.2
SPD
+0.1
Grüne
+3.4
BSW
-0.9
FDP
-0.3
Linke
-6.3
FW
+0.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 2000 respondents – 13.01.2025-16.01.2025

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2029.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: CDU/CSU 29%, AfD 21%, SPD 16.5%, Grüne 15%, BSW 4%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 2.5% and Freie Wähler 2%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, Grüne might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.4 growth since the last election. Die Linke, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Friedrich Merz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from CDU/CSU and SPD. With 55.8% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (13.01.2025 - 16.01.2025).

Coalition possibilities

630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
127
20.2%
Grüne
116
18.4%
Union
224
35.6%
AfD
163
25.9%
CDU/CSU + AfD
61.4%
CDU/CSU + SPD
55.7%
CDU/CSU + Grüne
54.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 13.01.2025 and 16.01.2025 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 29%, AfD 21%, SPD 16.5%, Grüne 15%, BSW 4%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 2.5% and Freie Wähler 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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