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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Greece (Alco, October 19, 2024)

October 15, 2024 - October 19, 2024

1003 respondents

Next General Election in Greece: 2027

The next General Election in Greece is expected in 2027.

Greece's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Alco projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 32.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Alco?

According to the latest national poll in Greece by Alco, Nea Dimokratia commands 29.5% of support, with PASOK: 18%, Ellinikí Lýsi: 11%, Kommounistikó: 10.2%, SYRIZA: 7.7%, Foní Logikís: 4.8%, NIKI: 4.7%, Plefsi Eleftherias: 3.9%, MeRA25: 3.4% and Néa Aristerá: 2.2% trailing. Other parties secure 4.6% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Greece
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Greece
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Alco Projection?

67

PolitPro Score

Alco achieved a PolitPro Score of 67 out of 100.

1.8

Election Accuracy

On average, Alco's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Alco at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Greece is 3%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • ND
    ??%
  • PASOK
    ??%
  • EL
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • ND
    ??%
  • PASOK
    ??%
  • EL
    ??%
  • PE
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SYRIZA
    ??%
  • FL
    ??%
  • N
    ??%
  • MeRA25
    ??%
  • NA
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
Nea Dimokratia + PASOK
Centre
51.3%
Nea Dimokratia + Ellinikí Lýsi + NIKI
Centre-Right
49.0%
Nea Dimokratia + Ellinikí Lýsi + Foní Logikís
Centre-Right
49.0%
Nea Dimokratia + Ellinikí Lýsi
Centre-Right
44.0%
Nea Dimokratia
Centre
32.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Alco)

According to Alco, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Hellenic Parliament: Nea Dimokratia with 96 representatives, PASOK with 58 representatives, Ellinikí Lýsi with 36 representatives, Kommounistikó with 33 representatives, SYRIZA with 25 representatives, Foní Logikís with 15 representatives, NIKI with 15 representatives, Plefsi Eleftherias with 12 representatives and MeRA25 with 10 representatives.

The Electoral System in Greece

The Greek Parliament, known as the Vouli ton Ellinon, comprises 300 members elected for a four-year term. Greece employs a reinforced proportional representation system. This system allocates most seats proportionally but grants the strongest party a seat bonus under specific conditions. Designed to be degressive, this bonus aids the winning party in securing an absolute majority of seats, fostering stable single-party governments. Voters cast ballots for party lists, yet they can influence which candidates fill the party's mandates by marking preference crosses next to names.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Greek Parliament, a political party must clear a nationwide electoral threshold of 3% of valid votes. This hurdle applies to both individual parties and party alliances. Parties failing to meet this threshold are excluded from seat allocation. Votes cast for parties below the 3% threshold are proportionally redistributed among qualified parties, further facilitating the formation of parliamentary majorities.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Greece prioritizes stability. The President of the Republic grants the leader of the party with the most seats the mandate to form a government. Thanks to the bonus system, single-party rule is more common in Greece than in other European nations. If seats fall short of an absolute majority (151 out of 300), exploratory mandates are extended to the second and third strongest parties to assess coalition prospects. Should all attempts fail, new elections are called, often under an electoral system designed to favor majority formation.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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