Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Greece (Metron Analysis, September 16, 2025)

September 10, 2025 - September 16, 2025

1300 respondents

Next General Election in Greece: 2027

The next General Election in Greece is expected in 2027.

Greece's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Metron Analysis projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 33.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Metron Analysis?

The latest opinion poll for the Greek election, conducted by Metron Analysis on September 16, 2025, shows Nea Dimokratia leading with 28.2%. Trailing behind are PASOK: 13.6%, Ellinikí Lýsi: 11.9%, Plefsi Eleftherias: 10.2%, Kommounistikó: 8.1%, SYRIZA: 6.2%, Foní Logikís: 4.1%, MeRA25: 4.1%, Néa Aristerá: 2.5%, Kínima Dimokratías: 2.2%, NIKI: 1.9% and Spartiátes: 0.4%. Other parties secure 6.6% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Metron Analysis Projection?

81

PolitPro Score

Metron Analysis achieved a PolitPro Score of 81 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Metron Analysis's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

300
Majority requires 151 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Greece is 3%.

Nea Dimokratia + PASOK + Foní Logikís
Centre
53.3%
Nea Dimokratia + Ellinikí Lýsi + Foní Logikís
Centre-Right
51.7%
Nea Dimokratia + PASOK
Centre
48.7%
Nea Dimokratia + Ellinikí Lýsi
Centre-Right
47.0%
PASOK + Plefsi Eleftherias + SYRIZA + MeRA25 + Foní Logikís
Centre-Left
43.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Metron Analysis)

According to Metron Analysis, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Hellenic Parliament: Nea Dimokratia with 99 representatives, PASOK with 47 representatives, Ellinikí Lýsi with 42 representatives, Plefsi Eleftherias with 35 representatives, Kommounistikó with 28 representatives, SYRIZA with 21 representatives, Foní Logikís with 14 representatives and MeRA25 with 14 representatives.

The Electoral System in Greece

The Greek Parliament, known as the Vouli ton Ellinon, comprises 300 members elected for a four-year term. Greece employs a reinforced proportional representation system. This system allocates most seats proportionally but grants the strongest party a seat bonus under specific conditions. Designed to be degressive, this bonus aids the winning party in securing an absolute majority of seats, fostering stable single-party governments. Voters cast ballots for party lists, yet they can influence which candidates fill the party's mandates by marking preference crosses next to names.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Greek Parliament, a political party must clear a nationwide electoral threshold of 3% of valid votes. This hurdle applies to both individual parties and party alliances. Parties failing to meet this threshold are excluded from seat allocation. Votes cast for parties below the 3% threshold are proportionally redistributed among qualified parties, further facilitating the formation of parliamentary majorities.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in Greece prioritizes stability. The President of the Republic grants the leader of the party with the most seats the mandate to form a government. Thanks to the bonus system, single-party rule is more common in Greece than in other European nations. If seats fall short of an absolute majority (151 out of 300), exploratory mandates are extended to the second and third strongest parties to assess coalition prospects. Should all attempts fail, new elections are called, often under an electoral system designed to favor majority formation.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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