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Greece Prorata: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

Prorata: current voting intention polls in Greece

Previous polls by Prorata

Poll on Respondents ND ELAS ELPIDA PASOK EL KKE FL PE MeRA25 SYRIZA KD DPK NA N Other View poll
3 June 2026 1,200 27.5 16.5 11.0 9.5 9.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 3.5
28 April 2026 1,100 28.7 12.9 9.9 8.8 4.1 8.2 3.5 5.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 12.7
19 September 2025 1,038 27.0 13.2 11.5 9.2 4.6 9.2 4.0 8.0 1.7 1.7 2.3 7.6
16 July 2025 1,000 26.9 13.5 10.5 9.4 3.5 11.7 4.1 8.2 2.3 2.3 2.9 4.7

Prorata at a glance

64 PolitPro Score Rank 9 of 10 in Greece
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 68.4
Avg. deviation in elections
1.9 pp

3 election comparisons

Recorded polls
32

Last on 3 July 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Prorata: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
SYRIZA
Often rated higher
3 % 72 %
At trend level
25 %
Polls
32
Kommounistikó
No significant deviation
9 % 9 %
At trend level
81 %
Polls
32
NIKI
No significant deviation
0 % 0 %
At trend level
100 %
Polls
10
Néa Aristerá
No significant deviation
0 % 0 %
At trend level
100 %
Polls
8
Foní Logikís
No significant deviation
13 % 0 %
At trend level
88 %
Polls
8
MeRA25
No significant deviation
16 % 0 %
At trend level
84 %
Polls
31
Ellinikí Lýsi
Often rated lower
28 % 9 %
At trend level
63 %
Polls
32
PASOK
Often rated lower
24 % 0 %
At trend level
76 %
Polls
17
Nea Dimokratia
Often rated lower
50 % 3 %
At trend level
47 %
Polls
32
Dimokrates
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
3
ELAS
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
1
Elpida
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
1

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

Prorata: How accurate were its past election polls?

Accuracy in Elections 1.0 Percentage points deviation Very Reliable Individual Parties: 0.0 to 4.1 percentage points
Last Election European election in Greece 2024 Rank 1 of 9 institutes
Very Accurate Very Inaccurate
European election in Greece 2024: 1.0, Parliamentary election in Greece 2019: 1.2, Parliamentary election in Greece 2023: 3.7
1 Very Reliable

In 1 elections, the pre-election poll was only slightly off the result.

1 Solid Results

In 1 elections, the pre-election poll deviated moderately from the result on average.

0 Significant Deviations

In 0 elections, pre-election polls and results differed significantly.

1 Very Large Deviations

In 1 elections, the pre-election poll significantly missed the result.

3 elections compared with Prorata · Select point for details, tap category to highlight.

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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