Hamburg: Poll by Trend Research Hamburg from 10.12.2024

Polling data

SPD
32.0
+1.0
Grüne
20.0
+1.0
CDU
17.0
-1.0
AfD
10.0
-4.0
Linke
7.0
-3.0
BSW
4.0
+4.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Volt
3.0
+3.0
Others
3.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 23.02.2020
SPD
-7.2
Grüne
-4.2
CDU
+5.8
AfD
+4.7
Linke
-2.1
BSW
New
FDP
-0.9
Volt
+1.7
Trend Research Hamburg – 886 respondents – 05.12.2024-10.12.2024

Next election: 02.03.2025

The next general election in Hamburg will be held in 43.

Low number of respondents

Only 886 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Grüne lower

In 46% of election polls Trend Research Hamburg rates Grüne lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SPD higher

In 54% of election polls, Trend Research Hamburg rates SPD higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Hamburg - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Hamburg from Trend Research Hamburg shows the following results: SPD 32%, Grüne 20%, CDU 17%, AfD 10%, Die Linke 7%, BSW 4%, FDP 4% and Volt 3%. If an election were held in Hamburg this Sunday, CDU might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.8 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Dr. Peter Tschentscher is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne and SPD. With 60.3% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Trend Research Hamburg. For this purpose, 886 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (05.12.2024 - 10.12.2024).

Coalition possibilities

121
Majority requires 61 seats
Linke
10
8.3%
SPD
45
37.2%
Grüne
28
23.1%
CDU
24
19.8%
AfD
14
11.6%
SPD + Grüne
60.3%
SPD + CDU
57.0%
SPD + Die Linke
45.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Hamburg was conducted by Trend Research Hamburg. The survey took place between 05.12.2024 and 10.12.2024 among 886 eligible voters. After this election poll would get SPD 32%, Grüne 20%, CDU 17%, AfD 10%, Die Linke 7%, BSW 4%, FDP 4% and Volt 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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