Polls, trends and elections for Hesse

Current Election Trend for Hesse

CDU
35.9
AfD
16.6
SPD
14.7
Grüne
14.1
FDP
4.7
FW
4.0
BSW
3.9
Linke
3.0
Sonst.
3.1
On the rise: CDU
+1.3 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: AfD
-1.8 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Hesse is expected to take place in 2028.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 62.3% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Hesse?

In the current election trend in Hesse, CDU leads with 35.9%. This is an increase of +1.3 percentage points since the last election.

AfD experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 16.6% (-1.8).

SPD reaches 14.7% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.4 percentage points).

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen reaches 14.1% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.7 percentage points).

FDP (4.7%), Freie Wähler (4%), BSW (3.9%) and Die Linke (3%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

3.1% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Infratest dimap for Hessischer Rundfunk and INSA for BILD, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 2159 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Hesse, the government from CDU and SPD would secure 62.3% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 4 parties could enter parliament: CDU, AfD, SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 66% - 34% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Hesse

INSA
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
· 7 months ago
7 months ago
Open Details
34.5
16.5
15.5
15.5
4.9
4.5
2.5
6.1

What is the latest poll for Hesse?

The latest poll for the election in Hesse was published by Infratest dimap. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 37%, AfD 16%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 15%, SPD 15%, FDP 5% and BSW 3%.

Coalitions

110
SPD
20
Grüne
19
CDU
49
AfD
22
Majority requires 56 seats
CDU + AfD
71
CDU + SPD
69
CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
68

Which coalitions are currently possible in Hesse?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CDU and AfD, Coalition from CDU and SPD and Coalition from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Hesse shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: CDU
+1.3 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: AfD
-1.8 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CDU
AfD
SPD
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
FDP
Freie Wähler
BSW
Die Linke
Show more

Hesse — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Hesse in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Hesse took place on 08.10.2023.

Government and parliament

Boris Rhein
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 133
Government & opposition
Government : 75
Opposition : 58
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 45
Right-leaning parties : 88

Which parties are in the parliament of Hesse?

In the parliament of Hesse, there are 133 representatives from 5 parties. 75 representatives are part of the government from CDU and SPD. The opposition from AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP has 58 representatives.

45 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 88 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Hesse?

Boris Rhein governs in Hesse with a coalition of CDU and SPD.

State election in Hessen 2028

The State election in Hessen 2028 will probably take place in 2028. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Boris Rhein is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of CDU and SPD. In the last State election in Hessen in 2023, CDU (34.6% - 52 seats), AfD (18.4% - 28 seats), SPD (15.1% - 23 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (14.8% - 22 seats) and FDP (5% - 8 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 66%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Hesse?

The next election in Hesse is expected to take place in the year 2028.

Who is the president of Hesse?

The head of state of Hesse is Boris Rhein.

Who governs in Hesse?

Boris Rhein governs in Hesse with a coalition of CDU and SPD.

What is the latest poll for Hesse?

The latest poll for the election in Hesse was published by Infratest dimap. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 37%, AfD 16%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 15%, SPD 15%, FDP 5% and BSW 3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Hesse?

In the parliament of Hesse, there are 133 representatives from 5 parties. 75 representatives are part of the government from CDU and SPD. The opposition from AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP has 58 representatives.