Polls, trends and elections for Hesse

Current Election Trend for Hesse

CDU
34.6
AfD
18.4
SPD
15.1
Grüne
14.8
FDP
5.0
FW
3.5
Linke
3.1
Tier
1.5
Volt
1.0
PARTEI
0.8
Basis
0.5
Sonst.
1.7
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Hesse is expected to take place in 2028.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 56.6% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Hesse?

In the current election trend in Hesse, CDU leads with 34.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

AfD reaches 18.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

SPD reaches 15.1% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen reaches 14.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

FDP reaches 5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Freie Wähler (3.5%), Die Linke (3.1%), Tierschutzpartei (1.5%), Volt (1%), Die PARTEI (0.8%) and die Basis (0.5%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

1.7% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Hesse, the government from CDU and SPD would secure 56.6% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: CDU, AfD, SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 66% - 34% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Hesse

What is the latest poll for Hesse?

The latest poll for the election in Hesse was published by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 34.5%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16.5%, SPD 15.5%, AfD 15.5%, FDP 4.9%, Freie Wähler 4.5% and Die Linke 2.5%.

Coalitions

133
SPD
23
Grüne
22
FDP
8
CDU
52
AfD
28
Majority requires 67 seats
CDU + AfD
80
CDU + SPD
75
CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
74
CDU + FDP
60

Which coalitions are currently possible in Hesse?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CDU and AfD, Coalition from CDU and SPD and Coalition from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Hesse shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CDU
AfD
SPD
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
FDP
Freie Wähler
Die Linke
Tierschutzpartei
Volt
Die PARTEI
die Basis
Show more

Hesse — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Hesse in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Hesse took place on 08.10.2023.

Government and parliament

Boris Rhein
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 133
Government & opposition
Government : 75
Opposition : 58
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 45
Right-leaning parties : 88

Which parties are in the parliament of Hesse?

In the parliament of Hesse, there are 133 representatives from 5 parties. 75 representatives are part of the government from CDU and SPD. The opposition from AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP has 58 representatives.

45 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 88 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Hesse?

Boris Rhein governs in Hesse with a coalition of CDU and SPD.

State election in Hessen 2028

The State election in Hessen 2028 will probably take place in 2028. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Boris Rhein is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of CDU and SPD. In the last State election in Hessen in 2023, CDU (34.6% - 52 seats), AfD (18.4% - 28 seats), SPD (15.1% - 23 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (14.8% - 22 seats) and FDP (5% - 8 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 66%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Hesse?

The next election in Hesse is expected to take place in the year 2028.

Who is the president of Hesse?

The head of state of Hesse is Boris Rhein.

Who governs in Hesse?

Boris Rhein governs in Hesse with a coalition of CDU and SPD.

What is the latest poll for Hesse?

The latest poll for the election in Hesse was published by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 34.5%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16.5%, SPD 15.5%, AfD 15.5%, FDP 4.9%, Freie Wähler 4.5% and Die Linke 2.5%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Hesse?

In the parliament of Hesse, there are 133 representatives from 5 parties. 75 representatives are part of the government from CDU and SPD. The opposition from AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP has 58 representatives.