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Latest Opinion Poll for the Hessen Election (Forsa, December 11, 2024)

November 22, 2024 - December 11, 2024

1003 respondents

Next Hessen Landtag Election: 2028

The next Hessen Landtag Election is expected in 2028.

Hessen's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Forsa projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 63.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Forsa?

According to the latest national poll in Hessen by Forsa, CDU leads with 38%. They are followed by AfD: 16%, SPD: 15%, Grüne: 14%, BSW: 3%, FDP: 3% and Die Linke: 3%. Other parties secure 8% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Hessen
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Hessen
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Forsa Projection?

82

PolitPro Score

Forsa achieved a PolitPro Score of 82 out of 100.

1.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Forsa's figures deviate by 1.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Forsa at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Hessen election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • CDU
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  • AfD
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  • SPD
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • CDU
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  • AfD
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  • SPD
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  • Grüne
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • BSW
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  • FDP
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  • Linke
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Forsa)

According to Forsa, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Hessen parliament: CDU with 50 representatives, AfD with 21 representatives, SPD with 20 representatives and Grüne with 19 representatives.

Hessen's Electoral System

Hessen employs a classic personalized proportional representation system, utilizing both first and second votes. The Landtag, Hessen's state parliament, comprises a minimum of 110 members. Often dubbed Germany's 'political heart,' Hessen's electoral system is renowned for its stability, reliably neutralizing overhang mandates through compensatory seats.

Electoral Thresholds

Hessen enforces a strict five-percent threshold, without a basic mandate clause. Historically, this has often led to close election outcomes resulting in weeks of political stalemates, as smaller parties failing to clear the 5% mark can drastically alter majority dynamics.

Government Formation and Traditions

Hessen has evolved from a state marked by intense ideological battles into a pioneer of new political alliances. Following years of Black-Green cooperation (CDU-Greens), the region recently shifted to a Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD). Government formation within Wiesbaden's City Palace is now driven less by ideology and more by pragmatic considerations.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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