Prefer an ad-free experience? Get PolitPro+ now.

Latest Opinion Poll for the Hessen Election (Infratest dimap, June 18, 2025)

June 12, 2025 - June 18, 2025

1150 respondents

Next Hessen Landtag Election: 2028

The next Hessen Landtag Election is expected in 2028.

Hessen's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 55.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?
According to the latest national poll in Hessen by Infratest dimap, CDU leads with 36%. They are followed by AfD: 18%, Grüne: 14%, SPD: 13%, Die Linke: 6%, FDP: 4% and BSW: 3%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.
Current Election Trend: Hessen
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Hessen
Prefer an ad-free experience? Get PolitPro+ now.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Hessen election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • CDU
    ??%
  • AfD
    ??%
  • Grüne
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • CDU
    ??%
  • AfD
    ??%
  • Grüne
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • Linke
    ??%
  • FDP
    ??%
  • BSW
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Unlock Analysis

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)
According to Infratest dimap, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Hessen parliament: CDU with 45 representatives, AfD with 23 representatives, Grüne with 18 representatives, SPD with 16 representatives and Die Linke with 8 representatives.

Hessen's Electoral System
Hessen employs a classic personalized proportional representation system, utilizing both first and second votes. The Landtag, Hessen's state parliament, comprises a minimum of 110 members. Often dubbed Germany's 'political heart,' Hessen's electoral system is renowned for its stability, reliably neutralizing overhang mandates through compensatory seats.

Electoral Thresholds
Hessen enforces a strict five-percent threshold, without a basic mandate clause. Historically, this has often led to close election outcomes resulting in weeks of political stalemates, as smaller parties failing to clear the 5% mark can drastically alter majority dynamics.

Government Formation and Traditions
Hessen has evolved from a state marked by intense ideological battles into a pioneer of new political alliances. Following years of Black-Green cooperation (CDU-Greens), the region recently shifted to a Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD). Government formation within Wiesbaden's City Palace is now driven less by ideology and more by pragmatic considerations.
Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

Help Us Stay Independent

Your support helps shield PolitPro from the influence of lobbyists and political parties.

Give Feedback

Tell us how we can make PolitPro even better for you!

Found a Mistake?

Political data is constantly evolving. If you spot an error, please let us know. A brief reference to your source will help us verify and update the information.