Latest voting intention survey by Századvég for Hungary
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Hungary conducted by Századvég, the parties received the following results: Fidesz/KDNP 42%, TISZA 34%, Mi Hazánk 7%, MKKP 7%, Demokratikus Koalíció 5%, Momentum 3% and MSZP 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 13.12.2024 - 13.12.2024.
1000 participants
01.12.2024 - 13.12.2024
Századvég
Seats in parliament
199
Majority requires 100 seats
DK
10
5%
MKKP
14
7%
TISZA
72
36.2%
Fidesz
89
44.7%
MH
14
7%
Fidesz/KDNP + TISZA
Fidesz/KDNP + MKKP
Fidesz/KDNP + Mi Hazánk
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Századvég pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 4.2 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
4.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Ungarn 2022 | 3/7 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.