Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Hungary (Real-PR 93, December 3, 2025)

December 1, 2025 - December 3, 2025

1000 respondents

Next General election in Hungary: April 12, 2026

The next General election in Hungary takes place in 55 days.

Hungary's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Real-PR 93 projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 52.3% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Real-PR 93?

A recent opinion poll for the Hungarian election, conducted by Real-PR 93 on December 3, 2025, shows Fidesz/KDNP leading with 49%. Trailing are TISZA: 38%, Mi Hazánk: 7%, Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt: 3% and Demokratikus Koalíció: 2%. Other parties secure 1% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Real-PR 93 Projection?

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

199
Majority requires 100 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Hungarian election is 5%.

Fidesz/KDNP
Right
52.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Real-PR 93)

According to Real-PR 93 data, 3 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Hungary's parliament: Fidesz/KDNP with 104 representatives, TISZA with 81 representatives and Mi Hazánk with 14 representatives.

Hungary's Electoral System

Hungary's Parliament, the Országgyűlés, comprises 199 members elected through a mixed-member electoral system. Of these, 106 representatives are directly elected in single-member constituencies by simple majority. The remaining 93 seats are allocated via national party-lists under a proportional representation framework. A distinctive feature is the 'compensatory vote' system: votes cast for losing candidates in constituencies, along with surplus votes for winning candidates, are reallocated to their respective national party lists. This mechanism can significantly bolster the representation of the strongest parties in Parliament.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Hungarian Parliament via the national list, individual parties must clear a 5% electoral threshold. This threshold rises to 10% for two-party alliances and 15% for coalitions of three or more parties. This regulation aims to prevent parliamentary fragmentation. The 106 directly elected seats in single-member constituencies are exempt from this threshold, as candidates secure victory by simple majority. Additionally, recognized national minorities can gain parliamentary representation through special preferential mandates, subject to reduced vote thresholds.

Government Formation and Traditions

Hungary's electoral system frequently facilitates the formation of governments by a single party or a cohesive bloc, often securing a stable absolute or even a two-thirds constitutional majority. The Parliament elects the Prime Minister, nominated by the President of the Republic. Given the Prime Minister's robust position and often clear majorities, traditional, protracted coalition negotiations play a less significant role in Hungarian politics compared to many other European nations. While the government is accountable to Parliament, it can only be removed through a constructive vote of no confidence.

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

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