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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Hungary (Republikon Intézet, October 1, 2025)

September 25, 2025 - October 1, 2025

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Hungary: 2030

The next General Election in Hungary is expected in 2030.

Hungary's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Republikon Intézet projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 45.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Republikon Intézet?

The latest national poll in Hungary, conducted by Republikon Intézet, shows TISZA leading with 43%. They are trailed by Fidesz/KDNP: 35%, Mi Hazánk: 8%, Demokratikus Koalíció: 5%, Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt: 5%, Momentum: 1% and Párbeszéd: 1%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Hungary
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Hungary
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Republikon Intézet Projection?

58

PolitPro Score

Republikon Intézet achieved a PolitPro Score of 58 out of 100.

3.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Republikon Intézet's figures deviate by 3.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Republikon Intézet at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Hungarian election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • TISZA
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  • Fidesz
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  • MH
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • TISZA
    ??%
  • Fidesz
    ??%
  • MH
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • MH
    ??%
  • DK
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  • MKKP
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
TISZA + Fidesz/KDNP
Centre-Right
81.9%
TISZA + Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt
Centre
50.3%
TISZA + Demokratikus Koalíció
Centre
50.3%
Fidesz/KDNP + Mi Hazánk + Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt
Right
49.7%
TISZA
Centre
45.2%
Fidesz/KDNP + Mi Hazánk
Right
44.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Republikon Intézet)

According to Republikon Intézet data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Hungary's parliament: TISZA with 90 representatives, Fidesz/KDNP with 73 representatives, Mi Hazánk with 16 representatives, Demokratikus Koalíció with 10 representatives and Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt with 10 representatives.

Hungary's Electoral System

Hungary's Parliament, the Országgyűlés, comprises 199 members elected through a mixed-member electoral system. Of these, 106 representatives are directly elected in single-member constituencies by simple majority. The remaining 93 seats are allocated via national party-lists under a proportional representation framework. A distinctive feature is the 'compensatory vote' system: votes cast for losing candidates in constituencies, along with surplus votes for winning candidates, are reallocated to their respective national party lists. This mechanism can significantly bolster the representation of the strongest parties in Parliament.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Hungarian Parliament via the national list, individual parties must clear a 5% electoral threshold. This threshold rises to 10% for two-party alliances and 15% for coalitions of three or more parties. This regulation aims to prevent parliamentary fragmentation. The 106 directly elected seats in single-member constituencies are exempt from this threshold, as candidates secure victory by simple majority. Additionally, recognized national minorities can gain parliamentary representation through special preferential mandates, subject to reduced vote thresholds.

Government Formation and Traditions

Hungary's electoral system frequently facilitates the formation of governments by a single party or a cohesive bloc, often securing a stable absolute or even a two-thirds constitutional majority. The Parliament elects the Prime Minister, nominated by the President of the Republic. Given the Prime Minister's robust position and often clear majorities, traditional, protracted coalition negotiations play a less significant role in Hungarian politics compared to many other European nations. While the government is accountable to Parliament, it can only be removed through a constructive vote of no confidence.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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