Latest Election Polls by IDEA Intézet

Current Election Trend: Hungary
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

About IDEA Intézet

28

PolitPro Score

IDEA Intézet achieved a PolitPro Score of 28 out of 100.

5.4

Election Accuracy

On average, IDEA Intézet's figures deviate by 5.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by IDEA Intézet

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
Demokratikus Koalíció
Social Democratic
1
32
67
Fidesz/KDNP
Conservative
57
31
11
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt
Transversal
9
72
19
Mi Hazánk
Far-Right
10
72
17
TISZA
Centre-Right
0
25
75

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Hungary
Current Election Trend: Hungary
Poll results, coalitions, and election data

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of IDEA Intézet

5.4

Election Accuracy

On average, IDEA Intézet's figures deviate by 5.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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