Current election polls and polling data from Gallup

Latest voting intention survey by Gallup for Iceland

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Iceland conducted by Gallup, the parties received the following results: Samfylkingin 34%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 19.5%, Viðreisn 12.6%, Miðflokkurinn 11.8%, Flokkur fólksins 6.9%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.8%, V 3.6%, Píratar 2.9% and Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 2.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 4693 people during the period 30.09.2025 - 30.09.2025.
4693 participants
01.09.2025 - 30.09.2025
Gallup
Development since the last election on 30.11.2024
S
+13.2
D
+0.1
C
-3.3
M
-0.3
F
-6.9
B
-2.0
V
+1.3
P
-0.1
J
-1.9
S
34.0
-0.6
D
19.5
-0.2
C
12.6
-0.3
M
11.8
+1.1
F
6.9
-0.5
B
5.8
+1.3
V
3.6
-0.1
P
2.9
-0.6
J
2.1
+0.2
Others
0.8
-0.3

Seats in parliament

63
Majority requires 32 seats
S
24
38.1%
F
4
6.3%
C
9
14.3%
D
14
22.2%
M
8
12.7%
B
4
6.3%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
60.3%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
55.6%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
55.6%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
50.8%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn
49.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
49.2%
82

PolitPro Score

Gallup achieves a score of 82/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
B
10
88
1
C
12
83
5
D
5
66
29
F
10
88
1
J
0
97
3
M
6
83
10
P
12
84
4
S
5
78
17
V
7
79
14

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.4

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Gallup pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.4 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.31
 Parliamentary Election in Iceland 2024 1/3
1.42
 Parliamentary Election in Iceland 2021 1/4

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
How to embed the election trend on your website:
  1. Copy code below
  2. Paste code on your website
  3. Done!
Copy code
Copied!