Latest voting intention survey by Gallup for Iceland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Iceland conducted by Gallup, the parties received the following results: Samfylkingin 20.2%, Viðreisn 18.1%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16%, Flokkur fólksins 13.1%, Miðflokkurinn 12.2%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 6.2%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 5.1%, Píratar 4.1% and V 3.3%. The voting intention survey was conducted during the period 21.11.2024 - 21.11.2024. The sample size is unknown. The survey was commissioned by RÚV.
Unbekannt
15.11.2024 - 21.11.2024
Gallup
RÚV
S
20.2
-0.6
C
18.1
+2.6
D
16.0
-0.4
F
13.1
+2.9
M
12.2
-2.1
B
6.2
+0.2
J
5.1
-1.1
P
4.1
-1.4
V
3.3
+3.3
Others
1.7
-3.4
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
63
Majority requires 32 seats
J
3
4.8%
S
14
22.2%
F
9
14.3%
P
2
3.2%
C
12
19%
D
11
17.5%
M
8
12.7%
B
4
6.3%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Miðflokkurinn
83
PolitPro Score
Gallup achieves a score of 83/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.4
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Gallup pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.4 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.31
|
Parliamentary Election in Island 2024 | 1/3 |
|
1.42
|
Parliamentary Election in Island 2021 | 1/4 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.