Latest voting intention survey by Prósent for Iceland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Iceland conducted by Prósent, the parties received the following results: Viðreisn 22%, Samfylkingin 18.3%, Miðflokkurinn 13.5%, Flokkur fólksins 12.5%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 11.5%, Píratar 6.7%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 6.4%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 4.4%, V 3%, L 1% and Y 0.7%. The voting intention survey was conducted during the period 21.11.2024 - 21.11.2024. The sample size is unknown. The survey was commissioned by Morgunblaðið.
Unbekannt
15.11.2024 - 21.11.2024
Prósent
Morgunblaðið
Seats in parliament
63
Majority requires 32 seats
J
4
6.3%
S
12
19%
F
8
12.7%
P
4
6.3%
C
15
23.8%
M
9
14.3%
D
8
12.7%
B
3
4.8%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Viðreisn + Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
Viðreisn + Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Píratar
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Samfylkingin + Píratar + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Píratar
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Píratar
Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Píratar
Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Píratar + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Samfylkingin + Píratar
Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Flokkur fólksins higher
In 44% of election polls, Prósent rates Flokkur fólksins higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Samfylkingin higher
In 33% of election polls, Prósent rates Samfylkingin higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower
In 67% of election polls Prósent rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Viðreisn higher
In 33% of election polls, Prósent rates Viðreisn higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
3.3
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Prósent pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.3 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
3.27
|
Parliamentary Election in Island 2024 | 3/3 |
|
3.24
|
Parliamentary Election in Island 2021 | 4/4 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.