Current election polls and polling data from Prósent

Latest voting intention survey by Prósent for Iceland

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Iceland conducted by Prósent, the parties received the following results: Samfylkingin 32%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 18.3%, Viðreisn 14.4%, Miðflokkurinn 9.9%, Flokkur fólksins 7.6%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 7.1%, Píratar 5.2%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 2.7% and V 2.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 30.09.2025 - 30.09.2025.
1000 participants
16.09.2025 - 30.09.2025
Prósent
Development since the last election on 30.11.2024
S
+11.2
D
-1.1
C
-1.5
M
-2.2
F
-6.2
B
-0.7
P
+2.2
J
-1.3
V
-0.2
S
32.0
+13.7
D
18.3
+6.8
C
14.4
-7.6
M
9.9
-3.6
F
7.6
-4.9
B
7.1
+2.7
P
5.2
-1.5
J
2.7
-3.7
V
2.1
-0.9
Others
0.7
-1.0

Seats in parliament

63
Majority requires 32 seats
S
22
34.9%
F
5
7.9%
P
3
4.8%
C
10
15.9%
D
12
19%
M
7
11.1%
B
4
6.3%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn
50.8%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar
50.8%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
49.2%
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
49.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
49.2%
54

PolitPro Score

Prósent achieves a score of 54/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
B
20
80
0
C
10
60
30
D
60
40
0
F
10
50
40
J
0
90
10
M
10
70
20
P
10
70
20
S
10
60
30
V
20
80
0

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

3.3

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Prósent pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.3 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
3.27
 Parliamentary Election in Iceland 2024 3/3
3.24
 Parliamentary Election in Iceland 2021 4/4

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
How to embed the election trend on your website:
  1. Copy code below
  2. Paste code on your website
  3. Done!
Copy code
Copied!