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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Iceland (Maskína, July 8, 2026)

June 28, 2026 - July 8, 2026

963 respondents

Next General Election in Iceland: 2029

The next General Election in Iceland is expected in 2029.

Incumbent Government in Iceland Without a Majority

Based on the Maskína projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 44.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Maskína?

According to the latest national poll in Iceland by Maskína, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn leads with 25%. They are followed by Samfylkingin: 24.4%, Miðflokkurinn: 13.4%, Viðreisn: 12.7%, Framsóknarflokkurinn: 6.6%, Flokkur fólksins: 5.9%, Vinstri græn: 4.9%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands: 4% and Píratar: 3.1%.

Current Election Trend: Iceland
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Iceland
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Maskína Projection?

68

PolitPro Score

Maskína achieved a PolitPro Score of 68 out of 100.

2.0

Election Accuracy

On average, Maskína's figures deviate by 2.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Maskína at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Iceland is 4%.

PolitPro Analysis
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn
Centre-Right
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Centre-Right
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Samfylkingin
Centre-Left
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn
Centre-Left
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Centre-Left
52.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Centre-Right
47.6%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Centre-Right
47.6%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins
Left
44.4%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Maskína)

According to data from Maskína, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Icelandic parliament: Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn with 17 representatives, Samfylkingin with 16 representatives, Miðflokkurinn with 9 representatives, Viðreisn with 8 representatives, Framsóknarflokkurinn with 4 representatives, Flokkur fólksins with 4 representatives, Vinstri græn with 3 representatives and Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Iceland

Iceland's parliament, the Althing (Alþingi), comprises 63 members elected for a four-year term. The country is divided into six constituencies. Its electoral system is a form of proportional representation, with 54 seats directly allocated within these constituencies. The remaining nine seats serve as compensatory mandates, ensuring the nationwide distribution of seats accurately reflects parties' overall vote share. Despite its small population, the system is designed to ensure fair representation for both the capital region and rural areas.

Electoral Thresholds

Iceland imposes a nationwide electoral threshold of 5% for parties to qualify for the nine compensatory mandates. Parties must clear this hurdle to benefit from national-level proportional adjustments. Theoretically, a party can still enter the Althing by winning a direct seat in one of the six constituencies, even without reaching the 5% national threshold. However, in practice, the 5% rule consolidates the party landscape and prevents excessive parliamentary fragmentation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Given Iceland's electoral system heavily emphasizes proportionality, a single party rarely secures an absolute majority. Consequently, two- or three-party coalition governments are the norm. Following an election, the President of Iceland consults with party leaders, typically tasking the head of the strongest party with forming a government. Iceland's political culture is marked by pragmatism, often seeing coalitions forged across ideological lines to secure stable majorities for addressing economic and environmental challenges.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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