Iceland: Poll by Maskína from 23.05.2024

Iceland: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
S
27.3
±0.0
D
17.5
+0.3
M
12.6
+1.0
B
10.4
-0.3
C
9.3
-0.9
P
8.4
-0.1
F
5.6
+0.3
V
5.1
+0.1
J
3.9
-0.2
Development since the last election on 30.11.2024
S
+6.5
D
-1.9
M
+0.5
B
+2.6
C
-6.6
P
+5.4
F
-8.2
V
+2.8
J
-0.1
Maskína – 3349 respondents – 30.04.2024-23.05.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Iceland is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower

In 30% of election polls Maskína rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Viðreisn higher

In 30% of election polls, Maskína rates Viðreisn higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Iceland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Iceland from Maskína shows the following results: Samfylkingin 27.3%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 17.5%, Miðflokkurinn 12.6%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.4%, Viðreisn 9.3%, Píratar 8.4%, Flokkur fólksins 5.6%, V 5.1% and Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 3.9%. If an election were held in Iceland this Sunday, Samfylkingin might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.5 growth since the last election. Flokkur fólksins, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-8.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Samfylkingin, Flokkur fólksins and Viðreisn. With 44.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Maskína. For this purpose, 3349 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 23 days (30.04.2024 - 23.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

63
Majority requires 32 seats
V
3
4.8%
S
19
30.2%
P
5
7.9%
F
3
4.8%
C
6
9.5%
D
12
19%
M
8
12.7%
B
7
11.1%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn
61.9%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
60.3%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn
58.7%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Píratar
57.1%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + V
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar + V
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar + Flokkur fólksins
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Píratar + V
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Píratar + Flokkur fólksins
54.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Viðreisn
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + V + Flokkur fólksins
52.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + V + Flokkur fólksins
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Píratar + V
52.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Píratar + V
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Píratar + Flokkur fólksins
52.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Píratar + Flokkur fólksins
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar
50.8%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Framsóknarflokkurinn + V + Flokkur fólksins
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Viðreisn
50.8%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn + V + Flokkur fólksins
50.8%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Viðreisn + V + Flokkur fólksins
49.2%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
49.2%
Samfylkingin + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
49.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar + V + Flokkur fólksins
49.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Píratar
49.2%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + V + Flokkur fólksins
49.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Iceland was conducted by Maskína. The survey took place between 30.04.2024 and 23.05.2024 among 3349 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Samfylkingin 27.3%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 17.5%, Miðflokkurinn 12.6%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.4%, Viðreisn 9.3%, Píratar 8.4%, Flokkur fólksins 5.6%, V 5.1% and Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 3.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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