Iceland: Poll by Prósent from 03.10.2024

Iceland: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
S
26.0
+11.3
M
18.0
+11.4
D
12.0
-8.1
F
11.0
+5.8
C
11.0
+1.7
P
9.0
-4.1
B
5.0
-7.2
J
4.0
-2.9
V
3.0
-7.7
Others
1.0
-0.2
Development since the last election on 30.11.2024
S
+5.2
M
+5.9
D
-7.4
F
-2.8
C
-4.9
P
+6.0
B
-2.8
J
±0.0
V
+0.7
Prósent – 1092 respondents – 18.09.2024-03.10.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Iceland is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates Flokkur fólksins higher

In 44% of election polls, Prósent rates Flokkur fólksins higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Samfylkingin higher

In 33% of election polls, Prósent rates Samfylkingin higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower

In 67% of election polls Prósent rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Viðreisn higher

In 33% of election polls, Prósent rates Viðreisn higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Iceland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Iceland from Prósent shows the following results: Samfylkingin 26%, Miðflokkurinn 18%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 12%, Flokkur fólksins 11%, Viðreisn 11%, Píratar 9%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 5%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 4% and V 3%. If an election were held in Iceland this Sunday, Píratar might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.0 growth since the last election. Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Samfylkingin, Flokkur fólksins and Viðreisn. With 50.8% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Prósent. For this purpose, 1092 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 15 days (18.09.2024 - 03.10.2024).

Coalition possibilities

63
Majority requires 32 seats
J
2
3.2%
S
18
28.6%
F
7
11.1%
P
6
9.5%
C
7
11.1%
M
12
19%
D
8
12.7%
B
3
4.8%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
60.3%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
58.7%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Viðreisn
58.7%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar
57.1%
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Píratar + Framsóknarflokkurinn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Píratar + Framsóknarflokkurinn
54.0%
Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Viðreisn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
52.4%
Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Píratar
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn
52.4%
Miðflokkurinn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Píratar
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Píratar
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Viðreisn
50.8%
Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Viðreisn + Píratar
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Píratar
49.2%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Píratar
49.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Viðreisn + Píratar + Framsóknarflokkurinn
49.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Iceland was conducted by Prósent. The survey took place between 18.09.2024 and 03.10.2024 among 1092 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Samfylkingin 26%, Miðflokkurinn 18%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 12%, Flokkur fólksins 11%, Viðreisn 11%, Píratar 9%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 5%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 4% and V 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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