Iceland: Poll by Maskína from 20.11.2024

Polling data

S
22.7
+2.6
C
20.9
+1.0
D
14.6
+1.2
M
12.6
±0.0
F
8.8
-0.4
B
5.9
-1.4
J
5.0
-1.3
P
4.3
-0.8
V
3.1
-0.3
L
1.6
-0.5
Y
0.6
±0.0
Development since the last election on 30.11.2024
S
+1.9
C
+5.0
D
-4.8
M
+0.5
F
-5.0
B
-1.9
J
+1.0
P
+1.3
V
+0.8
L
New
Y
New
Maskína – 1400 respondents – 15.11.2024-20.11.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Iceland is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower

In 30% of election polls Maskína rates Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Viðreisn higher

In 30% of election polls, Maskína rates Viðreisn higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Iceland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Iceland from Maskína shows the following results: Samfylkingin 22.7%, Viðreisn 20.9%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 14.6%, Miðflokkurinn 12.6%, Flokkur fólksins 8.8%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.9%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 5%, Píratar 4.3%, V 3.1%, L 1.6% and Y 0.6%. If an election were held in Iceland this Sunday, Viðreisn might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.0 growth since the last election. Flokkur fólksins, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.0) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir is currently governing with a Unknown orientation from . With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Maskína. For this purpose, 1400 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (15.11.2024 - 20.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

63
Majority requires 32 seats
J
3
4.8%
S
16
25.4%
F
6
9.5%
P
2
3.2%
C
14
22.2%
D
10
15.9%
M
8
12.7%
B
4
6.3%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
63.5%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn
60.3%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins
57.1%
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
54.0%
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
52.4%
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
50.8%
Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
50.8%
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
49.2%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Iceland was conducted by Maskína. The survey took place between 15.11.2024 and 20.11.2024 among 1400 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Samfylkingin 22.7%, Viðreisn 20.9%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 14.6%, Miðflokkurinn 12.6%, Flokkur fólksins 8.8%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.9%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 5%, Píratar 4.3%, V 3.1%, L 1.6% and Y 0.6%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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