Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for Ireland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Ireland conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: Fianna Fáil 21%, Sinn Féin 20%, Fine Gael 19%, Social Democrats 6%, Green Party 4%, Labour Party 4%, Aontú 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1200 people during the period 23.11.2024 - 23.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by Irish Times.
1200 participants
23.11.2024 - 23.11.2024
Ipsos
Irish Times
Seats in parliament
160
Majority requires 81 seats
SF
40
25%
S-PBP
6
3.8%
SD
12
7.5%
Lab
8
5%
GP
8
5%
Aon
6
3.8%
FF
42
26.3%
FG
38
23.8%
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Social Democrats
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Green Party
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Labour Party
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Aontú
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.