Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos MRBI for Ireland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Ireland conducted by Ipsos MRBI, the parties received the following results: Sinn Féin 35%, Fine Gael 22%, Fianna Fáil 21%, Green Party 4%, Labour Party 3%, Social Democrats 3%, Solidarity–People Before Profit 2% and Aontú 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1200 people during the period 25.10.2022 - 25.10.2022. The survey was commissioned by The Irish Times.
1200 participants
23.10.2022 - 25.10.2022
Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
Seats in parliament
160
Majority requires 81 seats
SF
63
39.4%
S-PBP
3
1.9%
Lab
5
3.1%
SD
5
3.1%
GP
7
4.4%
Aon
1
0.6%
FG
39
24.4%
FF
37
23.1%
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil + Green Party
Sinn Féin + Green Party + Labour Party + Social Democrats + Solidarity–People Before Profit
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil + Labour Party
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil + Social Democrats
Sinn Féin + Green Party + Labour Party + Social Democrats
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Fine Gael higher
In 32% of election polls, Ipsos MRBI rates Fine Gael higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Sinn Féin higher
In 47% of election polls, Ipsos MRBI rates Sinn Féin higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos MRBI pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.7 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.7
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2020 | 2/4 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.