Latest voting intention survey by Ireland Thinks for Ireland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Ireland conducted by Ireland Thinks, the parties received the following results: Fine Gael 22%, Fianna Fáil 20%, Sinn Féin 20%, Aontú 5%, Social Democrats 5%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1420 people during the period 22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by Sunday Independent.
1420 participants
21.11.2024 - 22.11.2024
Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
FG
22.0
-4.0
FF
20.0
+1.0
SF
20.0
+1.0
Aon
5.0
+1.0
SD
5.0
-1.0
Lab
4.0
-1.0
GP
3.0
-1.0
S-PBP
2.0
±0.0
Others
19.0
+4.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
160
Majority requires 81 seats
SF
40
25%
S-PBP
4
2.5%
SD
10
6.3%
Lab
7
4.4%
GP
5
3.1%
Aon
10
6.3%
FG
44
27.5%
FF
40
25%
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil
67
PolitPro Score
Ireland Thinks achieves a score of 67/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.7
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ireland Thinks pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.87
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2024 | 2/4 |
|
2.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2020 | 5/5 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.