Latest voting intention survey by Ireland Thinks for Ireland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Ireland conducted by Ireland Thinks, the parties received the following results: Fine Gael 22%, Fianna Fáil 20%, Sinn Féin 20%, Aontú 5%, Social Democrats 5%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1420 people during the period 22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by Sunday Independent.
1420 participants
21.11.2024 - 22.11.2024
Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
Seats in parliament
160
Majority requires 81 seats
SF
40
25%
S-PBP
4
2.5%
SD
10
6.3%
Lab
7
4.4%
GP
5
3.1%
Aon
10
6.3%
FG
44
27.5%
FF
40
25%
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Fianna Fáil lower
In 33% of election polls Ireland Thinks rates Fianna Fáil lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Sinn Féin lower
In 35% of election polls Ireland Thinks rates Sinn Féin lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.7
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ireland Thinks pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.87
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2024 | 2/4 |
|
2.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2020 | 5/5 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.