Latest voting intention survey by OPINIONS for Ireland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Ireland conducted by OPINIONS, the parties received the following results: Fine Gael 23%, Fianna Fáil 20%, Sinn Féin 18%, Social Democrats 6%, Green Party 4%, Labour Party 4%, Aontú 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 13.11.2024 - 13.11.2024.
1000 participants
07.11.2024 - 13.11.2024
OPINIONS
Seats in parliament
160
Majority requires 81 seats
SF
36
22.5%
S-PBP
4
2.5%
SD
12
7.5%
Lab
8
5%
GP
8
5%
Aon
6
3.8%
FG
46
28.8%
FF
40
25%
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael + Social Democrats + Labour Party + Green Party + Aontú
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.3
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in OPINIONS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.3 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.27
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2024 | 4/4 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.