Ireland: Polls and trends for the Irish election 2025

In the current election trend in Ireland, Sinn Féin leads with 26.1%. This is an increase of +1.6 percentage points since the last election.

Fine Gael reaches 20.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.5 percentage points).

Fianna Fáil reaches 16.6%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.6).

Social Democrats lands at 5.7% and gains +2.8 percentage points since the last election.

Green Party experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 4.1% (-3.0).

Aontú lands at 3.7% and gains +1.8 percentage points since the last election.

Labour Party experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 3.1% (-1.3).

Solidarity–People Before Profit reaches 2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.6 percentage points).

18.3% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Ireland Thinks, Red C and Ipsos for Irish Times, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3561 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

If there were an election this Sunday in Ireland, the government from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party would secure 50.3% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Social Democrats, Green Party, Aontú, Labour Party and Solidarity–People Before Profit reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 62.9% - 37.1% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

The latest poll for the election in Ireland was published by Ireland Thinks. The parties achieve the following values: Sinn Féin 26%, Fine Gael 21%, Fianna Fáil 16%, Social Democrats 6%, Aontú 4%, Green Party 4%, Labour Party 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 2%.

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Green Party and Aontú, Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Green Party and Labour Party, Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Aontú and Labour Party, Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Social Democrats, Coalition from Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Green Party, Aontú and Labour Party, Coalition from Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Green Party, Aontú and Solidarity–People Before Profit, Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party and Coalition from Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Green Party, Labour Party and Solidarity–People Before Profit each achieve a majority in parliament.

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Ireland shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Ireland in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Ireland took place on 08.02.2020.

In the parliament of Ireland, there are 160 representatives from 10 parties. 84 representatives are part of the government from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party. The opposition from Sinn Féin, Independents, Labour Party, Social Democrats, Solidarity–People Before Profit, Aontú and Independents 4 Change has 75 representatives.

67 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 73 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Micheál Martin governs in Ireland with a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party. The head of state is Micheál Martin.

The next election in Ireland is expected to take place in the year 2025.

The head of state of Ireland is Micheál Martin.

Micheál Martin governs in Ireland with a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party.

The latest poll for the election in Ireland was published by Ireland Thinks. The parties achieve the following values: Sinn Féin 26%, Fine Gael 21%, Fianna Fáil 16%, Social Democrats 6%, Aontú 4%, Green Party 4%, Labour Party 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 2%.

In the parliament of Ireland, there are 160 representatives from 10 parties. 84 representatives are part of the government from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party. The opposition from Sinn Féin, Independents, Labour Party, Social Democrats, Solidarity–People Before Profit, Aontú and Independents 4 Change has 75 representatives.