Current election polls and polling data from Demos & Pi

Latest voting intention survey by Demos & Pi for Italy

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by Demos & Pi, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 28.2%, Partito Democratico 19.6%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.9%, Lega 8.3%, Forza Italia 7%, Azione 4%, AVS 3.5%, Italia Viva 2.9% and Più Europa 2.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1001 people during the period 12.02.2024 - 12.02.2024. The survey was commissioned by La Repubblica.
1001 participants
01.02.2024 - 12.02.2024
Demos & Pi
La Repubblica
FdI
28.2
-0.2
PD
19.6
-0.7
M5S
16.9
+0.2
Lega
8.3
+0.6
FI
7.0
-0.2
A
4.0
+0.8
AVS
3.5
±0.0
IV
2.9
-0.1
+E
2.5
-0.3
Others
7.1
-0.1
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
77
19.3%
AVS
16
4%
PD
90
22.5%
A
18
4.5%
FI
32
8%
FdI
129
32.3%
Lega
38
9.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
59.3%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
54.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle
51.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Azione + AVS
50.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
49.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
49.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
45.8%

79

PolitPro Score

Demos & Pi achieves a score of 79/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
+E
0
100
0
A
0
100
0
AVS
0
100
0
FI
0
100
0
FdI
0
95
5
IV
8
92
0
Lega
28
68
5
M5S
5
85
10
PD
0
95
5

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.6

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Demos & Pi pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.59
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 9/18

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.