Latest voting intention survey by EMG for Italy
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by EMG, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29.3%, Partito Democratico 22.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12%, Forza Italia 8.5%, Lega 8.2%, AVS 7.1%, Azione 2.8%, Italia Viva 2.5%, Più Europa 2.1% and NM 1.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1523 people during the period 09.10.2024 - 09.10.2024. The survey was commissioned by Agorà.
1523 participants
08.10.2024 - 09.10.2024
EMG
Agorà
FdI
29.3
+2.0
PD
22.2
+3.5
M5S
12.0
-5.0
FI
8.5
+0.2
Lega
8.2
+0.1
AVS
7.1
+3.6
A
2.8
-0.7
IV
2.5
-1.7
+E
2.1
-0.6
NM
1.2
±0.0
Others
4.1
-1.4
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
55
13.8%
AVS
32
8%
PD
102
25.5%
FI
39
9.8%
FdI
135
33.8%
Lega
37
9.3%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
Fratelli d’Italia + Forza Italia + Lega
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
84
PolitPro Score
EMG achieves a score of 84/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.2
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in EMG pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.19
|
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 | 4/18 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.