Latest voting intention survey by GDC for Italy
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by GDC, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 24.4%, Partito Democratico 21.6%, Lega 12.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12.3%, A/IV 7.7%, Forza Italia 7.3%, AVS 3.2%, NM 3.1%, Italexit 2.5%, Più Europa 2.3% and IC 0.9%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 4854 people during the period 07.09.2022 - 07.09.2022.
4854 participants
05.09.2022 - 07.09.2022
GDC
Seats in parliament
400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
54
13.5%
AVS
14
3.5%
PD
94
23.5%
A/IV
33
8.3%
FI
31
7.8%
NM
13
3.3%
FdI
107
26.8%
Lega
54
13.5%
Partito Democratico + Lega + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + NM
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + NM
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.8
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in GDC pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.8 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.8
|
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 | 13/18 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.