Current election polls and polling data from Index

Latest voting intention survey by Index for Italy

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by Index, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29.8%, Partito Democratico 19.2%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.8%, Lega 8.6%, Forza Italia 6.9%, AVS 3.9%, Azione 3.5%, Italia Viva 3.4%, Più Europa 2.4%, NM 1.4% and Italexit 1.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 800 people during the period 10.01.2024.
800 participants
10.01.2024
Index
FdI
29.8
+0.3
PD
19.2
-0.4
M5S
16.8
+0.3
Lega
8.6
-0.8
FI
6.9
+0.4
AVS
3.9
+0.3
A
3.5
-0.4
IV
3.4
+0.4
+E
2.4
-0.2
NM
1.4
+1.4
Exit
1.3
-0.4
Others
2.8
-0.9
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
73
18.3%
AVS
16
4%
PD
84
21%
A
15
3.8%
IV
14
3.5%
FI
30
7.5%
FdI
131
32.8%
Lega
37
9.3%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
56.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + Italia Viva
53.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle
51.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
50.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS + Azione + Italia Viva
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Italia Viva
50.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
49.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS + Italia Viva
49.5%

84

PolitPro Score

Index achieves a score of 84/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
+E
0
97
3
A
0
100
0
AVS
0
100
0
Exit
0
100
0
FI
7
93
0
FdI
0
95
5
IV
0
100
0
Lega
6
94
0
M5S
2
98
0
NM
Not enough data available
PD
5
93
2

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.2

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Index pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.16
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 2/18

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.