Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for Italy
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 27.5%, Partito Democratico 21.6%, Movimento 5 Stelle 13.9%, Forza Italia 9%, Lega 8.2%, AVS 6%, Azione 2.5%, Italia Viva 2.5%, Più Europa 2%, NM 1% and ScN 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 12.09.2024 - 12.09.2024. The survey was commissioned by Corriere della Sera.
1000 participants
10.09.2024 - 12.09.2024
Ipsos
Corriere della Sera
FdI
27.5
-0.6
PD
21.6
-1.2
M5S
13.9
+1.4
FI
9.0
+0.5
Lega
8.2
-0.6
AVS
6.0
-0.2
A
2.5
±0.0
IV
2.5
±0.0
+E
2.0
+0.5
NM
1.0
+0.3
ScN
1.0
-0.1
Others
4.8
0.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
64
16%
AVS
28
7%
PD
101
25.3%
FI
41
10.3%
FdI
128
32%
Lega
38
9.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
Fratelli d’Italia + Forza Italia + Lega
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
82
PolitPro Score
Ipsos achieves a score of 82/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.2
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.18
|
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 | 3/18 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.