Current election polls and polling data from Noto

Latest voting intention survey by Noto for Italy

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by Noto, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 28%, Partito Democratico 20%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15%, Forza Italia 10%, Lega 9%, A/IV 6.5%, AVS 3.5%, Più Europa 2.5% and NM 1.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 13.06.2023.
1000 participants
13.06.2023
Noto
FdI
28.0
-1.0
PD
20.0
-1.0
M5S
15.0
+0.5
FI
10.0
+2.5
Lega
9.0
+0.5
A/IV
6.5
-1.5
AVS
3.5
+0.5
+E
2.5
+1.0
NM
1.5
±0.0
Others
4.0
-1.5
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
65
16.3%
AVS
15
3.8%
PD
87
21.8%
A/IV
28
7%
FI
44
11%
FdI
122
30.5%
Lega
39
9.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
58.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
57.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
56.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + A/IV
56.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Forza Italia + Lega
51.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
50.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
49.0%

79

PolitPro Score

Noto achieves a score of 79/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
+E
24
76
0
A/IV
0
70
30
AVS
9
91
0
FI
12
88
0
FdI
9
91
0
Lega
12
70
18
M5S
9
82
9
NM
Not enough data available
PD
33
61
6

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.6

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Noto pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.58
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 8/18

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.