Current election polls and polling data from SWG

Latest voting intention survey by SWG for Italy

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by SWG, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 30%, Partito Democratico 22%, Movimento 5 Stelle 12.5%, Forza Italia 8.8%, Lega 8.7%, AVS 6.4%, Azione 3.6%, Italia Viva 2.7%, Più Europa 1.9% and ScN 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1200 people during the period 14.04.2025 - 14.04.2025. The survey was commissioned by La7.
1200 participants
09.04.2025 - 14.04.2025
SWG
La7
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+4.0
PD
+2.9
M5S
-2.9
FI
+0.7
Lega
-0.1
AVS
+2.8
A
New
IV
New
+E
-0.9
ScN
+0.2
FdI
30.0
-0.2
PD
22.0
-0.3
M5S
12.5
+0.3
FI
8.8
-0.1
Lega
8.7
±0.0
AVS
6.4
+0.2
A
3.6
-0.2
IV
2.7
+0.2
+E
1.9
+0.1
ScN
1.0
±0.0
Others
2.4
0.0

Seats in parliament

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
54
13.5%
AVS
28
7%
PD
96
24%
A
15
3.8%
FI
38
9.5%
FdI
131
32.8%
Lega
38
9.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
56.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
55.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
55.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
53.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
51.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
50.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS
49.3%
80

PolitPro Score

SWG achieves a score of 80/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
+E
0
100
0
A
0
99
1
AVS
0
100
0
FI
22
78
0
FdI
1
93
6
IV
0
100
0
Lega
2
81
17
M5S
7
87
6
PD
14
83
3

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.6

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in SWG pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.59
 Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 10/18

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
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