Latest voting intention survey by Termometro Politico for Italy
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by Termometro Politico, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29.4%, Partito Democratico 23.1%, Movimento 5 Stelle 10.3%, Lega 8.6%, Forza Italia 8.2%, AVS 6.5%, Azione 2.6%, Italia Viva 2.3%, Più Europa 1.8%, DSp 1.4%, PTD 1.3%, NM 1.2% and ScN 0.6%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2600 people during the period 09.01.2025 - 09.01.2025.
2600 participants
08.01.2025 - 09.01.2025
Termometro Politico
Seats in parliament
400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
48
12%
AVS
30
7.5%
PD
107
26.8%
FI
38
9.5%
FdI
137
34.3%
Lega
40
10%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Lega higher
In 36% of election polls, Termometro Politico rates Lega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.4
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Termometro Politico pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.4 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.35
|
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 | 17/18 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.