Italy Election Poll: Results from Only Numbers on May 31, 2026

According to Only Numbers, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Italy's parliament: Fratelli d’Italia with 124 representatives, Partito Democratico with 98 representatives, Movimento 5 Stelle with 53 representatives, Forza Italia with 35 representatives, Lega with 32 representatives, AVS with 27 representatives, Futuro Nazionale with 18 representatives and Azione with 13 representatives.

The Italian Parliament comprises two equally powerful chambers: the Chamber of Deputies (Camera dei Deputati) and the Senate of the Republic (Senato della Repubblica). Following the 2020 parliamentary reform, the number of seats was reduced to 400 deputies and 200 senators. The current electoral system, known as the 'Rosatellum,' is a mixed-member system. Approximately 37% of seats are allocated via a first-past-the-post system in single-member constituencies (where the candidate with the most votes wins), while roughly 61% are distributed proportionally through party lists. The remaining seats are reserved for Italians residing abroad. This structure aims to balance regional representation with nationwide party strength.

Italy employs various electoral thresholds to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation. Individual parties must secure at least 3% of the national vote to qualify for the proportional allocation of seats. For coalitions, the threshold stands at 10% overall, provided at least one constituent party surpasses the 3% hurdle. Votes cast for parties within a coalition that achieve between 1% and 3% are credited to the coalition but are forfeited by the individual party. These intricate thresholds often compel parties to form broad alliances before elections.

Forming a government in Italy is frequently a protracted process, as the constitution mandates a 'perfect bicameral system': every government requires the confidence of both parliamentary chambers. Following an election, the President of the Republic conducts consultations with party leaders and tasks an individual with forming a government capable of securing a stable majority in both houses. Due to the electoral system, multi-party coalitions are almost invariably necessary. During periods of crisis, Italy has also repeatedly seen the formation of 'technocratic governments,' led by non-partisan experts and supported by broad parliamentary majorities.