Italy: Poll by Index from 07.09.2022

Polling data

FdI
26.5
+3.9
PD
21.1
-0.5
M5S
14.0
+1.5
Lega
11.0
-4.2
A/IV
7.2
+7.2
FI
7.0
-1.0
AVS
4.0
+4.0
Exit
3.0
+0.5
+E
2.0
+2.0
NM
1.1
+1.1
UP
1.0
+1.0
IC
0.9
+0.9
Others
1.2
-16.4
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+0.5
PD
+2.0
M5S
-1.4
Lega
+2.2
A/IV
-0.6
FI
-1.1
AVS
+0.4
Exit
+1.1
+E
-0.8
NM
+0.2
UP
-0.4
IC
+0.3
Index – 800 respondents – 06.09.2022-07.09.2022

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Low number of respondents

Only 800 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from Index shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 26.5%, Partito Democratico 21.1%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14%, Lega 11%, A/IV 7.2%, Forza Italia 7%, AVS 4%, Italexit 3%, Più Europa 2%, NM 1.1%, UP 1% and IC 0.9%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Lega might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.2 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 47.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Index. For this purpose, 800 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (06.09.2022 - 07.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
60
14.9%
AVS
17
4.3%
PD
90
22.5%
A/IV
31
7.7%
FI
30
7.5%
FdI
113
28.3%
Lega
47
11.7%
Exit
12
3.2%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
56.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
55.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
52.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + AVS + Italexit
52.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
50.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + Italexit
50.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS + Italexit
50.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + AVS
49.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
47.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by Index. The survey took place between 06.09.2022 and 07.09.2022 among 800 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 26.5%, Partito Democratico 21.1%, Movimento 5 Stelle 14%, Lega 11%, A/IV 7.2%, Forza Italia 7%, AVS 4%, Italexit 3%, Più Europa 2%, NM 1.1%, UP 1% and IC 0.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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